The proposed ban on the sale of new petrol/diesel cars in 2030.

[LPH_UK]

Seems it will be officially announced as a policy tomorrow.

Seems pretty clear in terms of no new petrol/diesel sales. But how will this affect those looking to build cars? Will they all have to be registered on age-related plates? Or could they be registered as 'new' with the engine being classed as the 'used' part and therefore not 'new' if you get my drift?

If it does mean a ban on any new kits using petrol/diesel engines then it could spell the end of the industry. Unless someone works out how to do things with motors and batteries.

[Stratos Fear]

Yes I was wondering about this - it's quite a conundrum for the industry I would think. I'm not sure a Stratos replica with an electric motor and battery pack will create the same magic as an internal combustion engine. However I think there is a market for kit cars which are electric powered.
Interestingly there seems also to be a Restomod movement developing for putting electric motors in Classic Cars to give them a new lease of life - anyone seen Vintage Voltage on TV?

For the general car market however I think the move is inevitable - sadly - but that doesnt mean that we will not be able to carry on using our ICE cars does it? (or does it?)

[LPH_UK]

I think there will be many year to come of ICE use, but eventually in the future i guess they will mostly die out. Hopefully they will still supply petrol / diesel for the classics and specialist cars that will be around.

[Guy Mayers]

Hopefully they will still supply petrol / diesel for the classics and specialist cars that will be around.

And there's the crux. At some point in the future it will become uneconomic to run a refinery or the price of fuel will rise so much that we can't afford to fill a tank? I guess that time will be somewhere in the mid 2030's? How log does the average car last these days? Guess 8-10 years? As 2030 approaches there'll be fewer and fewer people wanting to "risk" buying a non electric vehicle for fear of only getting a few years out of it.

Anyhoo, I'll be 75 by then and completely doolally. But just in case, I'm planning on digging a big hole in my front garden and then, when nobody is looking, late one night, I'm hijacking the last fuel tanker out of Ellesmere Port. Hopefully it's going to have a nice load of petrol and diesel on board. :rolleyes:
Guy

[Stratos Fear]

So Guy - a Viking burial ! very dramatic !

[Longtimefan]

Anyhoo, I'll be 75 by then and completely doolally. :rolleyes:
Guy

Speak for yourself, Guy. 2030 is only half way in time than that that has passed since 2000, or only as much again as it has taken to get my Build on the road from first order. I remember millenium night very clearly, and where has that time gone!!!

I'd better start installing a charging plug now!!! and get the Hamster Wheel connected to the Grid.

Robin

[Griff]

At the end of June 2020, there were38.4 million licensed vehicles in Great Britain,
only 6.6% of those vehicles are battery electric. The UK doesn't have the electrical generating capacity to support the energy requirements of 36 million plus vehicles.
So I suspect that hydro carbon fuelled vehicles will be around for a good length of time beyond the mid 2030's

Having said that, if you do bury the petrol tanker Guy, can I pop up with a couple of gerry cans??

[Guy Mayers]

Having said that, if you do bury the petrol tanker Guy, can I pop up with a couple of gerry cans??

Of course you can Griff! no idea how much I'd be charging for it but I'm sure the boys in blue will get a discount! Trouble is...... a gerry can probably won't hold enough fuel to get you back home?

[Normb666]

It's an interesting one, that's for sure. But it's so far off, and so un-thought-out, that no-one will have any details of how it'll work for a good while yet.
Petrol and diesel cars will still be available till 2030, and given how long cars last these days, fuel for them will be around for at least 10-15 years after that to supply those cars. Fuel for classics after that? Yeah, that'll still be available, but who knows at what price. ICE powered kit cars? Well, the UK is very good at exemptions if the argument is put correctly. So also given what the classic industry is worth to the UK, we'll be fine, I reckon.

The proper way to get the population to adopt something new is to make it the better, cheaper, obvious choice. That is, people move over to it because they'd be daft not to. That's why no-one goes to work on a horse any more. Same argument applies for BEVs and that ilk. Right now they're too expensive and limited, and impractical for most people, not least in terms of range and charging. Saying "we'll ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars from the year XXXX" isn't the way to do it... So, if it looks like the UK can't hit that 2030 target, it'll just be extended. Simples. And also, we're hosting the big climate summits next year, aren't we....gotta do something that makes us look like leaders. And then quietly water it down shortly thereafter. ;)

Me? Cynical?? Where'd you get that idea?? :) :)

[Paul Eustace]

Air pollution will become the biggest reason to move to Battery Electric Vehicles. I have foster children with asthma and car exhaust fumes outside their schools are an awful thing.
I have owned a Tesla Model 3 for just over a year. It's the 3rd fastest accelerating 4 door saloon on the road, only other Tesla's are faster. I always leave home with a full tank - 300 miles of range. Tesla super chargers are everywhere. I drove with my family to Geneva and charged during food and toilet breaks. At no point did we wait for charging to complete. Oh, and it self drives.
It is an expensive car but if I was still working it qualifies for zero BIC taxation. Essentially anyone who continues to buy a mid range company car should really be thinking about a Tesla.
Running costs are 1.2p per mile for electricity, zero road tax, dirt cheap insurance. I intend to keep it forever as it keeps getting better due to over the air updates. Signs are that the batteries will do a million miles!
I have a deposit on a Cybertruck and am trying to convince my wife as to the merits of a Model S Plaid, 200mph, 500+ mile range and less than 2s 0-60 are a must have..... Running the Model 3 as a RoboTaxi might just pay for the Model S.
The world is changing faster than people's imagination.

[LPH_UK]

Paul - genuine question. Does the speed of electric cars, with no noise, or gear changing etc. not feel a bit soulless?

To me driving is about a whole mix of things, sound, changing gear, dealing with torque curves of engines etc. It's not just about outright speed.

[ducatiman]

2030.......really..................:confused::confused::confused:

I'm all for going green but that is a lot of additional power required for all this car charging, let's get those nuclear power stations built (which I have no problem with).

Also how many car owners park on the street ?????

17041

[LPH_UK]

Don't forget they are also banning gas heating in new build homes from 2025. The increase in energy demand from electricity will be enormous over the next 10-20 years.

[NoCorseChris]

The trope of ‘there isn’t enough generating capacity’ just won’t die will it. It isn’t a problem, according to the people responsible for it. The current(!) problem is charging infrastructure, or rather lack of, unless you drive a Tesla of course. There are plenty of problems to solve before 100% electric transport will happen, if it ever does, so ICE will be here a while yet. No new pure ICE from 2030 (allegedly). It’s a noble target but like others, I suspect it’ll slip. No new hybrids 5 years after that. Again, it’ll probably slip.

I used to have that image of an EV pulling a powerstation down the road in my head, but bear in mind, you can actually replace that with a windmill or solar panel, and an ICE needs a refinery and an oil well behind it if you are playing fair. Even with the dirtiest coal powered power stations, a BEV is still less polluting than ICE by a large factor over a typical life of 100000 miles, and that’s total impact including manufacture, use and disposal.

[Normb666]

This "let's go electric to save the planet" is all very noble, but the cars themselves have gotta get much much much much cheaper!! Great if you've got the money, but you can't preach at the masses and try and force them to buy something they can't afford....or walk or whatever. Yeah, right. This is the 21st century, people are SUPPOSED to have personal mobility solutions, not be told to go back to the horse and cart or walk or ride a bicycle! Jeez.

the other thing that makes me uncomfortable with BEVs is the weight. I simply don't like the idea of carting round an extra half ton of batteries. All the extra energy to do so (even if, at the moment, it's cheaper than petrol), and the knock-on effects on bigger tyres, brakes, bushes, and the pollution you get from particles from those as they wear...it's all a lot more complicated than "buy an electric car, be green". As I said in my previous post, I'm cynical. I don't believe what I'm told simply on face value....

[NoCorseChris]

All good points Norm, part of the problem is simply an extension of the trend for ever bigger cars anyway. There’s no problem making compact relatively light BEV but people seem to insist on driving tanks. Another is an insistence on having a large range. The stats support the position that the average journey is 20 miles, so why does everyone demand a range of at least 10 times that? Mostly it’s just mindset and habit, and yes, I appreciate it’s the hardest thing to change.

Price of BEV vs ICE, well, that’s getting better too. Not everyone can afford a £100k Tesla S but then not everyone can afford an Aston either. There are already a number of relatively cheap BEVs on the market. Not as cheap as the cheapest ICE yet for sure, but getting there and it’ll only get better as more manufacturers get onboard. VW are in now. Yes, they have a serious PR problem to solve and no doubt this will help them, but they aren’t alone in seeing the writing on the wall, whether it's based on science or dogma matters not in the end, it’s policy now.

[David J]

One concerning point about BEV’s is the lithium batteries, is there enough lithium and cobalt resource in the world to produce all the batteries that will be required. I also understand that lithium batteries are difficult to recycle. My preference would be for hydrogen based system what in ever form it may take.

[colin artus]

Fossil fuels will be with us for the a long time into the future because petrol/diesel are only a one part of the myriad uses that oil provides. It's often forgotten that petrol (an upper distillate) was until the advent of ICE an unwanted byproduct of the cracking process and had to be flared off. So in other words when you process crude oil you get petrol whether you want it or not. Basic economics tells us that as the demand for petrol falls so will the price - before tax. Where will government find the massive revenue it currently obtains from fuel duties? That duty will have to be transferred to electrical vehicles in some form reducing the apparent cost benefit that the consumer currently sees This top down attempt at social engineering will fail because the populace will eventually push back - Gilet Jaune anyone?

[Normb666]

Chris, it doesn't matter that the average journey is only 20 miles. People have got used to cars that do at least 250 miles on a tank so why should they settle for anything less? And even if these journeys are mainly just "down the road", it's the fact that they can fill up and travel that 250 miles if they so desire. Most peeps only have one car and it has to do it all, including hols and weekends away, so a car that costs a fortune and only has 100 miles of range won't cut it. And then when you turn on the lights and wipers and the sound system, and the heated screens, and want some heat in the cabin...there's a big chunk out of that 100 miles gone! And that's another problem with the weight, they're too heavy to push :)
I love the look of that Honda E thingy. Really clever, and actually desirable, as is the way with Hondas...but the range is daft. Doesn't matter what people "need", it's what they want, and that'll lose them loads of sales, except to those with another car for "proper" trips (and plenty of the old disposable).

[ProtoTipo]

I can safely say that my Stratos replica currently has zero emmissions.

[westonTB]

I love running my hybrid Beta coupe... it has a 12v battery and a really efficient 1600 engine that does 47.8mpg on a run , she is 41 yrs young, now tax exempt and saving the planet as I have been running it for 23 years as a daily and have no desire to buy a 'modern' , how many 'moderns' have been binned in the last 23 yrs? a criminal waste of resources & energy.

That Kevin Czinger bloke has the right idea, how hard can it be to make a Busso run on hydrogen?

[Stradale493]

I believe the main problem with hydrogen is the conversion process is hugely inefficient in both directions (creating it and converting it back to electricity) so you really need cheap/free electricity to make it viable. I also don't think fuel cells can generate the power required to run a powerful electric motor so we aren't going to see hydrogen sports cars for a while (fuel cell / super capacitor combo maybe)
But I may be biased - I have a Tesla 3

[Paul Eustace]

Tesla have looked at Cobalt mining and Lithium production and determined that Cobalt mining is a nightmare and Lithium production is very inefficient.
So Cobalt is no longer being used in their latest batteries.
They have an entirely new method for producing Lithium that is very green.
The batteries are designed to be recycled.
The peoples Tesla is a couple of years away.
Urban car ownership will decline considerably when RoboTaxis roam the streets. They will be like Uber but without a driver. The cost will be a fraction of the current Uber cost.
In terms of driver enjoyment. I absolutely love my Tesla. It overtakes like my Hayabusa.

[Iowstratos]

Very interesting article.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CUA2imRYRM&feature=share

[Normb666]

Saw that yesterday. He says pretty much all the things I was already thinking...I reckon at some point in the next few years you'll see exemptions for low-volume manufacturers, at the very least, and if the synthetic fuel thing comes off there'll be nothing to worry about. In fact there'll be nothing to worry about anyway, once the nostalgia thing kicks in - look at how people go crackers over steam trains now. Was on a trip round the Cumbrian coast in September and my arm nearly fell off waving to the hordes lining the track pretty much all the way round!(What IS it with people waving at trains???)

I just hope all these conversions popping up, of converting classics to electric running, can be reversed, because an electric MGB or E-Type is totally missing the point....they're not MGBs or E-Types any more and their values will be on the floor!

[LPH_UK]

Harry makes some good points in this video.

The 'green tariff' elec is all done an 'accounting' type system, not the actual electricity that comes into your property. In the East Mids we are currently the highest g CO2e per kWh in the UK at just under 400. Even if you are paying for a 100% renewable tariff here you'll certainly not be using that elec. you'll be suing the dirty stuff!

It's like the current rush to achieve 'net zero' emissions. No one can achieve real zero so you 'offset' any emissions you do have by planting trees, buying 'carbon credits' etc. It has all the makings of an enormous con, ponzi type scheme. Which I fear is what it will actually become.

He also speaks a lot of sense about the driving experience of ICE cars. Elec cars are quiet and have mad performance but driving isn't just about that, the experience is a whole mix of things and lots of them are unmeasurable and emotional.

Some of his claims about the ICEs being zero CO2e for maintenance (compared to changing batteries etc) are spurious though.